Ante-Theft
Problem
Portland Police were floundering under a record-breaking wave of auto theft. A total of 10,903 cars were reported stolen in 2022, breaking a nearly three-decades-old record. They wanted to get more precise at identifying stolen vehicles, so they could stop fewer cars with better outcomes.
insight
What if we were able to look at cars on the road like a poker player looks at cards in their hands? With each feature of a potentially stolen car having a probability, e.g., missing plates = 17% chance it’s stolen.
idea
The Probability Method. Invented by an ex–Silicon Valley officer and an OHSU cancer researcher, this program tracks granular data about stolen cars to improve the police’s ability to find the cars and catch the thieves, including factors such as broken windows, tinted glass, and spare tires. And it’s working: They used to find a stolen vehicle for every 31 cars pulled over; now it’s one in six.